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POPULAR NEWS
Gold Hits 3-Week High, on Course to Reclaiming $1,600 Perch

The fear factor across markets is like manna from heaven for gold bugs. Both bullion and futures of the yellow metal breached the key $1,580 per ounce resistance on Monday before consolidating gains, although analysts said the $1,600 target seemed well within the market™s reach. Gold futures for February delivery on New York™s COMEX settled up $5.50, or 0.4%, at $1,577.40 per ounce. It earlier reached $1,588.10, a peak since Jan. 8. Spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion, was up...

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What happens to the gold price when Fed cuts rates this week?
Monday, 28 October 2019 11:28 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold CornerGold Outlook

With the Federal Reserve rate cut already priced in for this week, what will actually happen to the gold price once the central bank cuts for the third time this year?

Analysts sounded positive as gold's new technical momentum took prices temporarily to $1,520 an ounce, hitting a two-week high. Since then, prices retreated, but not below the key psychological $1,500 an ounce level.

"You have demand now from momentum traders. We have options expirations on Monday on the Comex. I talk about the fact that price makes the news. Prices got the attention of global traders. We are going to lose a lot of open interest from short-covering," RBC Wealth Management managing director George Gero told Kitco News on Friday.

Chart-based buying was giving prices a boost, Kitco's senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out. "Both gold and silver have seen their near-term technical postures improve markedly last week--near-term price downtrends on the daily charts were negated, which is inviting chart-based buyers into the markets," Wyckoff said.

Also, weaker economic data has helped gold move above $1,500 an ounce as traders were starting to price in more cuts as they worried about slower economic growth.

"We bounced off $1,480 level, which has been a bit the support recently. We continue to see weaker economic data from the U.S. in particular and that has helped strengthen the case for a cut this week," said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay.

Blue Line Futures president Bill Baruch described last Friday's move up as very technical in nature.

"The market could not go lower. The profile was exhausted to the downside and the bears could not do anything. We are seeing moves above technical levels that are gathering additional tailwinds," Baruch said. "I've been upbeat on longer-term gold. Earlier this week, we've gone bullish in the near-term as well.

It is advisable to get a bit more defensive in your portfolio, said RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible.

"Fresh weak economic data is really increasing expectations that the Fed is going to do that cut this week. Weaker durable goods versus expectations for the second month in a row got traders scratching their heads about the health of the economy," Streible said. "We also saw weaker data come out of tech stocks, which is a big growth sector. Those kinds of concerns really got people slightly worried.

Now, many are eyeing the $1,525 level as the key resistance that the yellow metal needs to break to move significantly higher.

"Gold has to get above $1,525 and then we can clear the way. If we can close the month anywhere near $1,550, those expectations of the $1,600 year-end target actually have a chance," Streible said.

The Fed might disappoint with a more hawkish tone

The Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday is the key event to watch this week, according to analysts, who are cautious that the market might be expecting an unrealistically dovish tone from the central bank's Chair Jerome Powell.

"In the last couple days ” the hawkish Pence speech and the weaker U.S. data ” markets are getting more convinced that Powell will strike a dovish tone at the next meeting," said McKay. "But, this might be a little premature. We are skeptical that Powell is going to signal more cuts after a cut this week. The Fed is likely to put rate cuts on pause for at least near-term to assess the impact of the potential three cuts they do this year."

Lack of dovishness from Powell could weigh on gold this week as markets are disappointed, McKay added.

Also, the Fed's rate cut has largely been priced in by the gold market, which means any hawkish hints could push gold lower, Baruch pointed out.

"What matters is the narrative they speak of and how they plan on moving forward. So it's not so much the cut but future cuts. Will they be as dovish as the markets are anticipating?" he Baruch. "Also, don™t underestimate Brexit and the U.S.-China talks."

At the time of writing, the markets were estimating a 93.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Data to watch this week

Some key macro releases this week include Friday's U.S. employment report, which is estimated to show that an additional 90,000 jobs have been created in October.

Another important dataset will be the preliminary Q3 GDP figure on Wednesday, which is projected to come in at 1.7%.

Other items to keep a close eye on are CB consumer confidence report and U.S. pending home sales on Tuesday, as well as, personal spending on Thursday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Gold Hits 3-Week High, on Course to Reclaiming $1,600 Perch

The fear factor across markets is like manna from heaven for gold bugs. Both bullion and futures of the yellow metal breached the key $1,580 per ounce resistance on Monday before consolidating gains, although analysts said the $1,600 target seemed well within the market™s reach. Gold futures for February delivery on New York™s COMEX settled up $5.50, or 0.4%, at $1,577.40 per ounce. It earlier reached $1,588.10, a peak since Jan. 8. Spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion, was up...

Gold Snaps 4-Day Rise as Markets Take Breather From Virus

Gold snapped a four-day rally on Tuesday as investors returned to give life to stocks and other risk assets crushed in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. But the yellow metal™s retreat was, nevertheless, modest as markets awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve™s monthly policy meeting and what that could mean for U.S. rates. Gold futures for February delivery on New York™s COMEX settled down $7.60, or 0.5%, at $1,569.80 per ounce. It reached a three-week high of $1,588.10 on...

Gold showcases haven credentials as Equities sink on Virus Fears

Gold is once again showcasing its long-standing reputation as an effective haven in troubled times, trading near the highest close in more than six years amid rising concern over the economic and human impact of China's deadly coronavirus. Prices steadied after surging Monday as investors weighed the fallout from the spread of the disease, with Germany reportedly seeing its first case. The virus has killed at least 80, and infected more than 2,700. China's markets...

Dollar Advance Kept in Check by Yen Amid Safe-Haven Rush

The dollar remained on the back foot Monday, pressured by a surprise fall in new home sales data and a bid in the yen and Swiss franc as worries intensified over the spread of the deadly coronavirus. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.12% to 97.97. The Commerce Department said new home sales fell fell 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units in December, confounding expectations for a 1.5%...

Oil Prices Log Lowest Finish in Over 3 Months as Coronavirus Stokes Fears of Weak Demand

Oil prices fell for a fifth session in a row on Monday, settling at their lowest in more than three months, as the growing death toll and spread of China's deadly influenza over the weekend incited fresh fears that the illness could hurt global energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery declined by $1.05, or 1.9%, to settle at $53.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for the front-month contract, which fell 7.5% last week, settled Monday at their lowest...

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