Tuesday, 28 November 2017 14:59 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner
All eyes are on Capitol Hill this week for a make-or-break vote on tax reform in the U.S. Senate. According to one strategist, the political landscape could determine whether gold will drive above $1,300 an ounce.
In a research note Monday, Jonathan Butler, precious-metals strategist at Mitsubishi, said U.S. political uncertainty represents the largest potential for the gold market, with the focus on this week™s tax-reform vote and next week™s debt-ceiling vote.
œThe outlook for gold and precious metals is that macroeconomic news may present near-term headwinds, but the longer-term picture is generally supportive with substantial potential upside in the coming weeks if the U.S. government fails to agree on either tax reform or the debt ceiling, he said.
Butler™s comments come as gold prices remain within striking distance of $1,300 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1,294.10 an ounce, up 0.53% on the day. Gold is benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, which is trading near a two-month low, and a flatter yield curve, with the spread between two-year and 10-year bonds fall to 57 basis points, a new multi-year low.
Uncertainty over the vote is extremely high, with many expecting to see a close battle as Republicans only hold a slim majority in the Senate. Republicans can only afford to lose two of their own party™s votes on the legislation.
Muddying the political waters this week is the Congressional Budget Office, which Sunday reaffirmed its finding that the proposed legislation would raise the national debt by $1.4 trillion dollars; however, the bipartisan office did not provide a score.
œFailure to agree on tax reform or the debt ceiling could be damaging for risk assets, and especially for the U.S. dollar while supporting gold as a risk hedge, Butler said. œIf successful, this could see a return of the ˜Trumpflation™ trade “ giving a boost to equities and damaging gold.
Source: Kitco News