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Gold Will Retain Gains Through H1 2018 - BNP Paribas
Monday, 5 February 2018 14:58 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Gold will be keeping January's gains throughout the first half of 2018, according to BNP Paribas, but will face downward pressure in the second part of the year as the Federal Reserve proceeds with normalization of monetary policy.

œRising inflation expectations and a weak dollar, as long as they last, provide the support for gold's current trading levels, Harry Tchilinguirian, senior commodity strategist at BNP Paribas, said in the Precious Metals Market Comment published on Friday.

œOur gold (period average) forecast for 2018 is revised slightly higher at USD 1315/oz (+USD 60/oz). We initiate a first view for 2019 with a period average of USD 1170/oz, Tchilinguirian wrote.

Gold prices have been benefitting from a weaker U.S. dollar despite three rate increases in 2017 and firm expectations of more rate hikes in 2018.

œWith upward revisions to the economic and inflation outlooks in the US and the eurozone, investor interest in gold will likely remain in place, the note added.

Also, gold received a boost this year as investors chose the metal as a hedge against surging equity markets, Tchilinguirian said.

But, in the second part of the year, inflation is looking to œmoderate and real yields are expected to rise, which will increase the opportunity cost of owning gold.

œThe Fed will continue to plot a steady course in normalizing rate policy in 2018. On the back of the latest FOMC significantly upgrading language around economic outlook, we now see four rate hikes in 2018 and one more in 2019, Tchilinguirian wrote. œWith base-effects keeping inflation readings at bay, the longer term direction of monetary policy would in turn suggest greater downside risk to gold prices.

BNP Paribas said that upside is limited for gold, but also pointed out that downside risks are unlikely until œbond yields push much higher in H2 2018.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Dow Futures Surge Over 100 Points

U.S. stock futures climbed Friday, building on gains in the prior session amid signs of an increased appetite for perceived riskier assets such as equities. Dow futures rose 160 points, or 0.7%, to 25,175, while S&P 500 futures gained 14.5 points, or 0.5%, to 2,726. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 32.50 points, or 0.5%, to 6,820.50. The Dow and S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday, inspired by upbeat labor-market data and after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard tried to cool...

Asian Shares Advance as Japan Stocks Break Three-Day Decline

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Hong Kong Stocks Rise as Sentiment Recovers After Recent Rout

Hong Kong stocks rose on Friday, capping a holiday-shortened trading week, as main indexes managed to recover much of the damage done during the recent rout. The Hang Seng index rose 1.0 percent, to 31,267.17, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.7 percent, to 12,735.06. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 2.2 percent, while the IT sector rose 1.32 percent, the financial sector was 0.91 percent higher and the property sector rose 1.47 percent. The top gainer on...

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Gold on Track For Biggest Weekly Drop This Year

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