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Gold Flirts With $1,500 Again on New Trade War Worries

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Prospek 2019: Outlook Paling Bullish Sejauh Ini
Monday, 7 January 2019 11:30 WIB | GOLD CORNER |

Para bulls emas kembali. Setelah setahun melihat harga emas lebih lemah, investor dan analis sama-sama mengadopsi optimisme baru untuk tahun baru. Meskipun sentimen dalam seri Outlook 2019 kami telah bervariasi sejauh ini, tidak dapat disangkal bahwa beberapa ahli dogmatis berada di kamp "bull".

Berikut adalah pandangan paling bullish yang kami tayangkan dalam seri sejauh ini, dan alasan yang mendukung pandangan ini.

Pada 2019 akan terlihat beberapa goyangan dari angin yang mendukung emas, termasuk akhir dari rentetan penguatan dolar dan pasar ekuitas akan lebih bergejolak, kata Will Rhind, CEO GraniteShares.

œSaya pikir kita bisa melihat perubahan yang cukup signifikan jika ada kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Desember. Saya pikir itu benar-benar meningkatkan kemungkinan aksi jual pasar saham saat memasuki tahun depan. Jadi, kita sudah mendapatkan dolar yang kuat seperti yang Anda tahu saat ini, saya pikir bahwa kenaikan suku bunga pada tingkat ini membuat sulit untuk melihat seberapa jauh dolar bisa melangkah lebih tinggi dari sini, "kata Rhind kepada Kitco News.

Ekuitas sudah menunjukkan tanda-tanda masalah, kata Rhind.

"VIX mulai meningkat lagi, yang mana jelas merupakan level, atau ukuran volatilitas di pasar, dan indeks itu keluar dari posisi terendahnya, dan saya pikir kita bisa melihat lebih banyak volatilitas, terutama saat memasuki tahun depan," katanya .

Rhind mencatat bahwa emas biasanya tidak langsung menguat selama aksi jual ekuitas seiring logam kuning tidak berkorelasi negatif dengan saham sekuat dolar. Ketika saham jatuh, reaksi pasar biasanya langsung berduyun-duyun mencari keselamatan di tempat berlindung seperti dolar, dan emas hanya akan melihat momennya bersinar ketika investor merelokasi aset lebih jauh, kata Rind.

Bukan masalah apakah emas akan naik pada tahun 2019, melainkan seberapa banyak emas akan naik, menurut Mike McGlone, ahli strategi komoditas senior di Bloomberg Intelligence.

"Bagi saya, gambaran besar untuk emas yang saya temukan sangat membingungkan, artinya saya takut berapa banyak emas bisa naik. Bagi saya, emas itu seperti gas alam, artinya emas terkompresi dalam kisaran tersempit dalam dua tahun terakhir, mungkin 36 bulan, kata McGlone kepada Kitco News.

Terlepas dari kinerja emas yang lesu, banyak penggerak yang berubah positif, terutama penyimpangan emas dari dolar, katanya.

"Volatilitas pasar saham meningkat, dari yang terendah ... dan dolar memiliki tahun yang kuat secara substansial. Dolar AS menjadi kelas aset utama berkinerja terbaik di planet ini tahun ini. Naik 8% tahun ini, namun emas akan bergerak naik / turun 6%. Bagi saya, saya melihat tanda penguatan yang berbeda, katanya.

Beberapa faktor ekonomi makro dapat membentuk lingkungan bullish untuk emas pada 2019, khususnya dolar AS yang lebih lemah, kata Erik Norland, ekonom senior CME.

œUntuk logam mulia, kunci sebenarnya adalah penguatan atau pelemahan dolar AS. Jika dolar AS ternyata menjadi mata uang yang lemah pada 2019, cermati emas untuk berpotensi reli yang cukup signifikan, kata Norland kepada Kitco News.

Faktor lain termasuk kenaikan tingkat inflasi bisa menjadi bullish untuk emas, karena logam kuning dipandang sebagai lindung nilai inflasi.

"Jika kita melihat pasar tenaga kerja yang terus mengetat, dengan tingkat pengangguran turun lebih jauh, jika kita melihat beberapa tekanan terbalik pada inflasi, itu bisa menjadi sangat bullish untuk emas," kata Norland.

Pada 2019, siklus bulls baru untuk emas siap berjalan, dan investor bisa melihat harga naik ke level $ 1.500 per ounce, kata E.B. Tucker, direktur Metalla Royalty & Streaming.

Tucker mengatakan bahwa harga $ 1.900 per ons akan diperkirakan pada puncak siklus emas berikutnya, tetapi itu tidak akan terjadi dalam waktu dekat.

"Kami menyerukan $ 1.500 tahun depan, kenaikan harga emas sebesar 22%, itu akan menjadi salah satu pasar dengan kinerja terbaik di tahun yang sangat, sangat fluktuatif untuk ekuitas," kata Tucker kepada Kitco News. (Sdm)

Sumber: Kitco

 

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POPULAR NEWS
Gold Flirts With $1,500 Again on New Trade War Worries

What™s bad for trade is good for gold. The yellow metal found favor again with haven investors on Monday, flirting with the key bullish level of $1,500 per ounce, on news of fresh troubles in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Gold rebounded after a Bloomberg report that China had more demands from the Trump Administration over tariffs and wanted more talks to reach a trade deal. The Chinese stance appeared to contradict the U.S. president™s contention on Friday that the two sides were closer...

Hong Kong stocks end with healthy gains (Review)

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U.S. Stocks Pause On Unsettled Trade Deal; Earnings Eyed

Wall Street edged lower on Monday as uncertainties following recent U.S.-China trade negotiations clouded sentiment and investors turned their focus on the third-quarter earnings season, which begins in earnest on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29.97 points, or 0.11%, to 26,786.62, the S&P 500 lost 4.07 points, or 0.14%, to 2,966.2 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 8.39 points, or 0.1%, to 8,048.65. Source : Reuters

Gold prices rise as the Fed announced the start of a 'massive' bond buying program

Gold futures rose Monday, looking to post their first gain in three sessions, finding support as the so-called ''phase one'' of the U.S.-China trade deal reportedly hit a snag and after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced last week that it will start expanding its balance sheet next week. On Comex, December gold climbed by $5.70, or 0.4%, to $1,494.40 an ounce. On Friday, it posted its lowest finish month to date and the most-active futures contract lost 1.6%. December silver added 10.6...

Oil Tumbles Again as Trade Bogeyman Returns

One session is all it took for the optimism over U.S.-China trade talks to turn into pessimism. Crude oil prices settled down 2% on Monday after a Bloomberg report that China had more demands from the Trump Administration over tariffs and wanted more talks to reach a trade deal. That contrasted with the U.S. president™s contention that the two sides were closer to an agreement. Just on Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude U.K. Brent oil settled up more than 2% each, finishing last...

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