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Wall St, Main St. Look For Still-Higher Gold Prices
Monday, 17 June 2019 14:43 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Gold hit its highest levels in more than a year on Friday, and Wall Street and Main Street look for the momentum to continue this week, based on the weekly Kitco News gold survey.

The metal has been underpinned by continuing trade tensions between the U.S. and its partners, resulting in worries about an economic slowdown that in turn has market participants looking for a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee before the end of the summer. Attacks on a pair of tankers in the Middle East prompted additional buying. And whenever markets break higher, they generate technical-chart momentum.

Twenty-two market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of 16 voters, or 73%, called for gold to rise. There were three votes each, or 14%, for either lower or sideways/neutral.

Meanwhile, 558 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 389 voters, or 70%, called for gold to rise. Another 122, or 22%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 47 voters, or 8%, saw a sideways market.

In the last survey, Main Street and Wall Street were both bullish. As of 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, they were right, with Comex August gold futures were trading up 0.4% for the week so far at $1,351.40 an ounce. The contract traded as high as $1,362.20 an ounce, its highest level since April 2018.

"With the tensions escalading between Iran and the U.S. as well as all the tariffs on and off, I think gold has a good potential to see new highs," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS. "This week, [the] FOMC will have a meeting on Wednesday¦and the market thinks they may want to cut interest rates."

Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner's Report, commented that not only has gold benefited from its role as a safe haven, but real interest rates remain suppressed given high demand for U.S. Treasury notes, which he noted is a bullish development for non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

"As oil prices have fallen on weakening demand, gold has proved resilient and, more recently, on the move higher," Baker said. "A gold price model based on Brent [crude], 10-year real rates, [the] euro and Japanese yen demonstrates high fidelity since early March. That model suggests that Comex gold should return to Friday morning's highs closing above $1,360 per ounce this week. Silver should follow above the $15-per-ounce level."

Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also said higher. "Importantly, sentiment seems to be changing, and so bullish factors are starting to be reflected in the price," Day said.

Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco News, said he looks for gold to keep rising since the charts turned more bullish.

"Gold is in a solid bull market," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. "Increased geopolitical risks as well as concerns about the global economy will give gold a bid. More talk of a slower global economy will have investors looking at gold as a hedge."

Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, said the seasonal low is "behind us" and "an attack at $1,370 in the gold is in the near-term horizon."

Meanwhile, Ole Hansen head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he is short-term bearish on gold, citing the risk that the Federal Reserve does not prepare markets for a July rate cut. However, he added that he would look to buy dips as weak economic data point to a slower U.S. economy and will prompt the Fed to eventually cut rates.

David Madden, market analyst at CMC markets, also described himself as bearish, not expecting the Fed to set the stage for a July rate cut.

"Some traders are getting ahead of themselves in many different markets, not just gold," he said. "If the Fed doesn™t tee up a rate cut for July, then that would cause sentiment to dramatically shift."

Two participants said they are neutral-sideways camp.

"I am neutral on gold for this week because I think it could potentially stage big moves in both directions in the coming days," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. "While gold is breaking out last Friday, if the Fed is not as dovish this week as some on the Street seem to be hoping, the U.S. dollar could bounce back."

Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellen, also said he is neutral on gold and the U.S. dollar, as he expects the Federal Reserve strikes a neutral note and rate-cut expectations get pushed to later in the year.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Gold loses stream after tapping fresh 6-year highs

Gold futures lost steam on Friday, ending lower for the session as the dollar strengthened. Prices, however, gained for the week after logging their first intraday climb above $1,450 an ounce in six years. August gold trading fell by $1.40, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,426.70 an ounce, after touching an intraday high of $1,454.40. Friday™s intraday high and Thursday™s settlement were the loftiest for a most-active contract since mid-May 2013, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Gold tallied...

Stocks Skid Lower to End Worst Week Since May Smid Disappointment on Fed Rate-cut Plans

U.S. stocks finished firmly lower Friday, capping the worst week for equities since the end of May, as doubts about the magnitude of an expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve softened the buying mood on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% at 27,154, off 69 points, the S&P 500 index retreated 0.6% at 2,977, while the Nasdaq Composite Index pulled back 0.7% to end at 8,146. For the week, the Dow booked a 0.7% decline, the S&P 500 finished with a weekly slide...

Oil Gains For The Session, But U.S. Prices Drop Over 7% For The Week

Oil futures finished higher Friday after reports that Iran seized a U.K.-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman. Prices still settled lower for the week, however, on worries about a slowdown in demand. The market saw an "insane downward trend in crude oil this week," said James Hatzigiannis, senior commodities associate at Long Leaf Trading Group. "I think it is a bit of an overreaction and you should see prices recover next week if there [is] any progress on the U.S./China trade front or any...

Stocks steady mid-session Friday as investors ponder corporate earnings, Fed rate cuts and U.S-China trade dispute

U.S. stocks were little changed mid-session Friday, with Wall Street hopeful that the Federal Reserve will take aggressive action to stamp out signs of stress in the economy, while digesting mixed corporate earnings reports against the backdrop of the unresolved U.S.- China trade dispute. The S&P 500 index rose back above 3,000 level in early trade, but all three benchmarks look likely to end slightly lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 78 points at 27,301, while...

European stocks close slightly higher as investors await Fed rate decision

European stocks were little changed on Friday as market players awaited news on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. The pan-European Stoxx 600 hovered around the flatline during afternoon trade and ended the session 0.12% higher to 387.25 with sectors and major bourses pointing in opposite directions. Basic Resources were the strongest performers with a 1.1% climb, while bank stocks were 0.9% lower as Italian banks declined amid tension between the two parties...

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