DJIA
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
FTSE
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
NDXI
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
POPULAR NEWS
Gold Finishes Higher After Cooler-Than-Expected Retail-Sales Report

Gold prices ended higher on Wednesday as investors watched global political news surrounding trade and Brexit, and reacted to a weaker-than-expected reading of U.S. retail sales, which spurred some haven buying. Moves for the precious metal came as Brexit and the "usual worries persist" on Turkey, the Middle East, U.S. politics and the global economic outlook, as well as on uncertainty tied to the continued tariff talks with China, said George Gero, managing director, at RBC Wealth...

Hong Kong stocks end lowers (Review)

Hong Kong shares closed with slight losses Tuesday following three days of gains, while investors were fretting over the limited scope and lack of detail in last week's mini China-US trade deal. The Hang Seng Index eased 0.07 percent, or 17.92 points, to 26,503.93. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.56 percent, or 16.83 points, to 2,991.05, and the Shenzhen Composite Index -- which tracks stocks on China's second exchange -- slipped 1.11 percent, or 18.38 points, to...

Hong Kong stocks closed higher (Review)

Hong Kong shares closed higher on Wednesday, in line with a rally across Asia and after shrugging off a mid-morning drop when the city's leader was forced to briefly abandon a policy speech owing to heckling by opposition lawmakers.The Hang Seng Index added 0.61 percent, or 160.35 points, to 26,664.28. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.41 percent, or 12.34 points, to 2,978.71, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, eased 0.38...

Gold Scores a Bounce After Cooler-Than-Expected Retail Sales Report

Gold prices were climbing on Wednesday as investors watched global political news surrounding trade, Brexit and reacted to a weaker-than-expected reading of U.S. retail sales, which spurred some haven buying. A report of the retail sales fell 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, ending a streak of six straight strong gains that helped to fuel economic growth in the middle of the year, as most stores posted lower receipts, signaling that a widely expected slowdown in consumer...

Wall Street Slips as Weak Economic Data Offsets Earnings Strength

Wall Street lost ground on Wednesday as weak U.S. economic data and simmering geopolitical tensions spooked buyers away from the equities market, despite a string of generally positive third-quarter earnings reports. Technology shares, led by Microsoft Inc, weighed heaviest, pulling all three major U.S. stock averages into the red. U.S. retail sales contracted in September for the first time in seven months, according to the Commerce Department, in a sign that cracks might be spreading from...

Home

Fed's Easing Pace Questioned But Gold To Remain Around The $1,400 Level - Analysts
Monday, 8 July 2019 12:50 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

The precious metals sector got hit hard last Friday as the market re-priced its Federal Reserve rate cut expectations ” taking a 50-basis point cut off the table in July.

The analysts are now busy debating whether or not the Fed will cut rates in July and by how much in light of the latest solid job numbers out of the U.S.

The economy added 224,000 new positions in June, while the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% and wage growth remained at 3.1%.

"The employment report was a lot stronger than expected. And if you look at the three-month average payroll employment growth, it clearly slowed so far this year, but remained at a reasonably solid level, Capital Economics U.S. economist Andrew Hunter told Kitco News.

"It is now looking less likely that the Fed is going to start cutting rates as soon as this month as the markets have been expecting. We still think the Fed will cut rates when the economy slows. It is probably more likely that they will start in September rather than July," Hunter added.

In response to the data, the market has readjusted its rate cut expectations, now projecting 95.1% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut on July 31st and just a 4.9% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

"Markets got a bit ahead of themselves during the past few weeks," said Hunter, noting that traders went from believing that the Fed might consider cutting rates to suddenly pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis point cut in July. "In light of the data last Friday, it is almost certainly likely to prove premature," he stated.

This market's readjustment had a big short-term impact on the precious metals, as the U.S. dollar rose, taking gold and silver down about 2% on the day. At the time of writing (5/7/19), August Comex gold was last at $1,400.05, down 1.44% on the day and September silver was at $15.00, down 2.19% on the day.

Digesting the sudden move in gold prices, analysts have pointed out that even though the metal lost some of its previous strong gains, gold™s long-term outlook remains supported around the $1,400 an ounce level on global growth concerns.

"While the price of gold could pare some of its gains in the near term, we think that it will remain high during the rest of this year. As such, we are happy to reiterate our end-2019 forecast for gold at $1,400 per ounce," said Capital Economics assistant commodities economist Kieran Clancy.

Some analysts see a recovery in gold prices as soon as this week.

"Gold prices are heading upward," TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News. "At this point, the likelihood of a 50-basis point cut is getting priced out of the market. For gold that is a negative. But, the Fed is still likely to cut 25 basis points regardless in July."

The strong employment data might have even been a good thing for gold long-term, Ghali pointed out.

"[An employment] miss probably would have seen gold prices react more aggressively to the upside. Whereas, ¦ when the dust settles [from strong data], it wouldn't be much of a damper on gold prices. We still expect gold prices to trade north of the $1,400 level," he said.

On the upside, Ghali is watching the last high of $1,440 an ounce and on the downside $1,380.

The U.S. dollar has responded positively to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and pressured the commodities space down with the U.S. dollar index last trading at $97.31, up 0.61% on the day, said RJO Futures senior market strategist John Caruso.

"It is not a question on whether or not the Fed is going to cut. They are going to cut. It is a question of how aggressively they are going to cut and how soon," Caruso told Kitco News.

Short-term, Caruso sees gold prices ticking down this week, but then recovering closer to the Fed meeting at the end of July.

"This is just a near-term corrective setback based on Fed expectations, he said. œAs we start to approach the Fed meeting, you are going to start to see gold finding its footing and turning back significantly higher in August and September."

Long-term, Caruso is expecting great things from gold. "I am still overwhelmingly bearish dollar and bullish gold and silver prices throughout the back half of this year. I am a buyer of gold between $1,380- $1,360 as your accumulation zone in gold," he said.

What To Watch This Week

The biggest event this week likely be the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony in front of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday with the market scouring for clues as to the timing and pace of the next rate cut.

"Powell is going to be testifying to Congress this week. It's possible that if they are planning to wait a bit longer and see more data before cutting rates, he could give a hint that the expectations of a July cut are premature," Hunter said.

The FOMC meeting minutes from June are also due out on Wednesday but are likely to sound dated and take a backseat to Powell™s testimony, according to Capital Economics.

"Powell testimony could make June FOMC minutes old news," economists wrote. "If Fed officials still want to wait for more data before pulling the trigger, the release this week of the minutes from the previous meeting is an opportunity to push back against those market expectations. That said, they will be pre-empted by Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony to the House earlier the same day."

U.S. inflation data from June is also a key event to watch on Thursday, said Ghali while noting that Fed's approach to inflation could tame the impact of this release on the markets.

"The Fed is increasingly comfortable with the symmetrical inflation targeting approach. I don't think CPI on its own is going to change the outlook for gold," he explained.

Source: Kitco News

RELATED NEWS
Gold prices to return to $1,500 levels soon - analysts...
Monday, 14 October 2019 11:29 WIB

Even though gold was getting beaten up last Friday, analysts were still optimistic that the precious metal was going to return to its key $1,500 level soon. Gold fell more than 1% on Friday (10/11/19...

Don't go quietly into that good night: Wall Street, Main Street bullish on gold prices...
Monday, 7 October 2019 13:14 WIB

Gold bulls are keeping the drive alive as both Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors remain firmly bullish on the yellow metal as the price has managed to regain the $1,500 level heading into...

Wall Street neutral on gold price, Main Street optimism hits 3-month low...
Monday, 30 September 2019 15:22 WIB

The sidelines in the gold market are getting a little crowded with Wall Street analysts projecting range-bound trading despite rising volatility in the near-term. Meanwhile, Main Street investors rem...

Gold to keep bullish trend this week: ECB, U.S. data in focus...
Monday, 9 September 2019 11:35 WIB

After a very volatile session, gold is closing with a second straight week of losses last Friday while analysts remain bullish but slightly more cautious for this week. Seeing gold hit new fresh six-...

Bearish Cracks Appearing In Bullish Gold Market...
Monday, 19 August 2019 15:16 WIB

After three-straight weeks of gains, cracks are starting to appear in gold's bullish veneer, particularly among Wall Street analysts, according to the latest results of the Kitco News Weekly Gold Surv...

POPULAR NEWS
Gold Finishes Higher After Cooler-Than-Expected Retail-Sales Report

Gold prices ended higher on Wednesday as investors watched global political news surrounding trade and Brexit, and reacted to a weaker-than-expected reading of U.S. retail sales, which spurred some haven buying. Moves for the precious metal came as Brexit and the "usual worries persist" on Turkey, the Middle East, U.S. politics and the global economic outlook, as well as on uncertainty tied to the continued tariff talks with China, said George Gero, managing director, at RBC Wealth...

Hong Kong stocks end lowers (Review)

Hong Kong shares closed with slight losses Tuesday following three days of gains, while investors were fretting over the limited scope and lack of detail in last week's mini China-US trade deal. The Hang Seng Index eased 0.07 percent, or 17.92 points, to 26,503.93. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.56 percent, or 16.83 points, to 2,991.05, and the Shenzhen Composite Index -- which tracks stocks on China's second exchange -- slipped 1.11 percent, or 18.38 points, to...

Hong Kong stocks closed higher (Review)

Hong Kong shares closed higher on Wednesday, in line with a rally across Asia and after shrugging off a mid-morning drop when the city's leader was forced to briefly abandon a policy speech owing to heckling by opposition lawmakers.The Hang Seng Index added 0.61 percent, or 160.35 points, to 26,664.28. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.41 percent, or 12.34 points, to 2,978.71, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, eased 0.38...

Gold Scores a Bounce After Cooler-Than-Expected Retail Sales Report

Gold prices were climbing on Wednesday as investors watched global political news surrounding trade, Brexit and reacted to a weaker-than-expected reading of U.S. retail sales, which spurred some haven buying. A report of the retail sales fell 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, ending a streak of six straight strong gains that helped to fuel economic growth in the middle of the year, as most stores posted lower receipts, signaling that a widely expected slowdown in consumer...

Wall Street Slips as Weak Economic Data Offsets Earnings Strength

Wall Street lost ground on Wednesday as weak U.S. economic data and simmering geopolitical tensions spooked buyers away from the equities market, despite a string of generally positive third-quarter earnings reports. Technology shares, led by Microsoft Inc, weighed heaviest, pulling all three major U.S. stock averages into the red. U.S. retail sales contracted in September for the first time in seven months, according to the Commerce Department, in a sign that cracks might be spreading from...

DISCLAIMER

Seluruh materi atau konten yang tersaji di dalam website ini hanya bersifat informatif saja, dan tidak dimaksudkan sebagai pegangan serta keputusan dalam investasi atau jenis transaksi lainnya. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala akibat yang timbul dari penyajian konten tersebut. Semua pihak yang mengunjungi website ini harus membaca Terms of Service (Syarat dan Ketentuan Layanan) terlebih dahulu dan dihimbau untuk melakukan analisis secara independen serta memperoleh saran dari para ahli dibidangnya.