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Gold Edges Up as Geopolitics Take Control of Trade

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Wall St., Main St.: Gold To Shine During FOMC Week
Monday, 29 July 2019 14:29 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Wall Street and Main Street both look for gold prices to climb this week, with the Federal Open Market Committee widely expected to cut U.S. interest rates, according to the weekly Kitco News gold survey.

Wall Street respondents cited a dovish Fed, technical-chart momentum in gold and the ability of the market to attract buying interest from fund managers on any price dips. However, many Wall Street respondents either look for either lower prices - saying a rate cut is already factored into the market, thus profit-taking may occur when the actual news occurs - or are neutral heading into what could be a volatile week for prices.

One key will be whether policymakers cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points, with the larger reduction more likely to result in price gains, observers said.

Sixteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of eight voters, or 50%, called for gold to be higher. There were three votes, or 19%, for lower, while five respondents, or 31%, look for the metal to be sideways or were neutral.

Meanwhile, 953 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 580 voters, or 61%, called for gold to rise. Another 223, or 23%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 150 voters, or 16%, saw a sideways market.

In the last survey, Main Street and Wall Street were both bullish on prices for the last week was winding down. Just before 11 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold futures were trading $6.60 lower for the week so far at $1,420.10 an ounce.

Wall Street and Main Street both have a 15-13 winning record for the year to date, meaning respondents have been right 54% of the time.

"The lustrous metal finds broad support for its rally upwards with U.S.-China trade tensions unresolved, the possibility of a hard Brexit on the horizon, easing Central Bank policies and slowdown in global growth," said Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner's Report.

He commented that second-quarter U.S. economic growth, reported last Friday at 2.1%, is below the first quarter and will likely not deter the Federal Reserve policymakers from a signaled rate cut.

"The ECB [European Central Bank] didn't cut rates last week but President Mario Draghi announced a dovish stance going forward," Baker said. "This keeps the opportunity costs for holding gold low; the 10-year real rate is 0.28% against a background of negative rates abroad. There has also been a modestly bullish uptick in inflation expectations since the low of mid-June (up 19 bps to date)."

Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, looks for a flight to quality into gold. Pavilonis and Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, both commented that buying interest seems to emerge on any price pullbacks lately.

"I think the market moves higher into the Fed," Lusk said, but adding that some consolidation may well occur afterward. He also commented that markets continue to worry that the trade war will cut into global economic growth, thereby helping gold.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, looks for gold to build on the gains made this summer.

"Even though Mario Draghi seemed to disappoint gold by not acting immediately to cut rates, the path is still accommodative and still bullish for gold," Flynn said. "The Fed anticipation should help gold prices this week. Gold is still in breakout mode."

Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco News, said gold™s technical-chart picture remains bullish.

Meanwhile, Adam Button, managing director of ForexLive, is among those who look for gold prices to move lower this week.

"I expect the Fed to cut 25 bps and offer few clear signals about what's coming next. The reaction will be similar to the post-ECB disappointment," he said, referring to the price movement after last Thursday's ECB meeting. "Far too much easing is priced in and as it unwinds, gold will come under pressure."

Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for a pullback this week, even though he's friendly to the metal.

"The market is beginning to be a little cautious about this week's Federal Reserve meeting ” or maybe traders are just locking in gains," Day said."Expectations are quite high, so there is unlikely to be a surprise on the upside. So we are cautious in the near term, up to and post the meeting. For this week, we'll say down -- but not by much, and we remain very positive fundamentally."

Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals, said he looks for volatility in a week when the Fed announces a decision on interest rates and is expected to provide forward guidance.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Gold Edges Up as Geopolitics Take Control of Trade

Investors managed to push gold higher Thursday instead of completely embracing risk, as doubts remained about whether the U.K. will get parliament ratification for its Brexit deal, but Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in Syria. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $4.30, or 0.3%, at $1,498.30 per ounce. In post-settlement trade, gold futures were up just $1.45, or 0.1%, at $1,495.45, at 3:27 PM ET (19:27 GMT) after scaling $1,501.05 at the intraday high. Spot gold was up $1.83, or...

Hong Kong stocks finish on the up (Review)

Hong Kong shares finished on a positive note Thursday as more weak US data raised hopes for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.69 percent, or 184.21 points, to 26,848.49. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.05 percent, or 1.38 points, to 2,977.33, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, was barely changed, inching up 0.27 points to 1,635.92. Sumber : AFP

Oil Up as U.S. Fuels Drawdown Offsets Huge Crude Build

Oil prices rose on Thursday as traders looked beyond a whopping jump in weekly U.S. crude inventories to focus on plummeting fuel stockpiles as the maintenance season for refineries caused an unusual deficit in oil products. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 57 cents, or 1%, at $53.93 per barrel. U.K. Brent oil closed up 49 cents, or 0.8%, at $59.91. An easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also didn't keep oil down. Turkey has agreed to a five-day ceasefire in...

Gold steady as Brexit deal lifts stocks, pressures dollar

Gold prices held steady on Friday after Britain managed to eke out a deal for its exit from the European Union, lifting risk appetite, while a sluggish dollar provided support to the metal. Spot gold was unchanged at $1,491.62 an ounce as of 00:57 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.2% to $1,495.40 per ounce. Asian shares inched higher following Britain's deal with the European Union, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.1%. The dollar slipped to a near eight-week...

U.S. Stocks Gain On Upbeat Earnings, Geopolitical News

Wall Street advanced on Thursday as investor sentiment was buoyed by a string of corporate earnings beats and encouraging geopolitical developments. A broad-based rally led all three major U.S. stock averages to moderate gains. Britain and the European Union agreed to a severance deal, moving closer toward wrapping up three years of uncertainties after Britons voted to leave the bloc. Upbeat statements from Beijing and Washington fueled hopes that a phased agreement could ease the...

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