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Gold settles with a gain for the session and shorter week

Gold futures climbed on Thursday, also posting a gain for the holiday-shortened week, as concerns over the increase in COVID-19 cases in part of the world provided safe-haven support for the metal. Some of that support lacked in the U.S., where data showed better-than-expected jobs growth in June. "The employment numbers are spectacular but an 11% unemployment rate is still elevated," said Jeff Wright, executive vice president of GoldMining Inc. "COVID cases are back on rise and numerous...

Oil futures end higher, with U.S. prices at their highest since March

Oil futures settled higher on Thursday, buoyed by a hefty decline in last week's U.S. crude supplies and better-than-expected domestic jobs growth in June. August West Texas Intermediate oil rose 83 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $40.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest finish for a front-month contract since March 6, according to FactSet data. There will be no regular trading for Nymex oil futures Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Prices were up...

Gold Heads for Weekly Gain Amid Virus Woes, Jobs Data

Gold headed for a fourth weekly gain as concerns over the resurgence of coronavirus cases countered better-than-expected monthly U.S. jobs data. Texas ordered residents to wear masks, reversing course as it reported its second-most daily infections of the outbreak, while Florida™s largest county, Miami-Dade, will impose a curfew. The novel coronavirus is showing some signs of mutating in a way that may make it easier for the pathogen to spread, according to Anthony...

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Economic Optimism Outweighing Virus

Oil slipped Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain as aggressive supply cuts and better-than-expected U.S. economic data overshadowed a surge in coronavirus cases in the world™s largest economy. Futures in New York fell toward $40 a barrel in Asian trading, but are still up almost 5% for the week. Crude rose along with broader markets on Thursday as data showed a rebound in the U.S. jobs market accelerated in June. That came after American crude stockpiles fell by the most...

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Market Awaits Labor-Market Update

Gold futures inched higher Thursday ahead of employment data in the U.S. that could influence trading in the precious commodity, a day after hope for a vaccine and a rally in stocks eroded appetite for the haven metal. Economists polled by MarketWatch estimate that 3.7 million jobs were created in June, with some estimates ranging as high as 8 million. Meanwhile, a weekly report on individuals seeking unemployment insurance weekly is estimated to show that 1.4 million people sought such...

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What happens to the gold price when Fed cuts rates this week?
Monday, 28 October 2019 11:28 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold CornerGold Outlook

With the Federal Reserve rate cut already priced in for this week, what will actually happen to the gold price once the central bank cuts for the third time this year?

Analysts sounded positive as gold's new technical momentum took prices temporarily to $1,520 an ounce, hitting a two-week high. Since then, prices retreated, but not below the key psychological $1,500 an ounce level.

"You have demand now from momentum traders. We have options expirations on Monday on the Comex. I talk about the fact that price makes the news. Prices got the attention of global traders. We are going to lose a lot of open interest from short-covering," RBC Wealth Management managing director George Gero told Kitco News on Friday.

Chart-based buying was giving prices a boost, Kitco's senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out. "Both gold and silver have seen their near-term technical postures improve markedly last week--near-term price downtrends on the daily charts were negated, which is inviting chart-based buyers into the markets," Wyckoff said.

Also, weaker economic data has helped gold move above $1,500 an ounce as traders were starting to price in more cuts as they worried about slower economic growth.

"We bounced off $1,480 level, which has been a bit the support recently. We continue to see weaker economic data from the U.S. in particular and that has helped strengthen the case for a cut this week," said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay.

Blue Line Futures president Bill Baruch described last Friday's move up as very technical in nature.

"The market could not go lower. The profile was exhausted to the downside and the bears could not do anything. We are seeing moves above technical levels that are gathering additional tailwinds," Baruch said. "I've been upbeat on longer-term gold. Earlier this week, we've gone bullish in the near-term as well.

It is advisable to get a bit more defensive in your portfolio, said RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible.

"Fresh weak economic data is really increasing expectations that the Fed is going to do that cut this week. Weaker durable goods versus expectations for the second month in a row got traders scratching their heads about the health of the economy," Streible said. "We also saw weaker data come out of tech stocks, which is a big growth sector. Those kinds of concerns really got people slightly worried.

Now, many are eyeing the $1,525 level as the key resistance that the yellow metal needs to break to move significantly higher.

"Gold has to get above $1,525 and then we can clear the way. If we can close the month anywhere near $1,550, those expectations of the $1,600 year-end target actually have a chance," Streible said.

The Fed might disappoint with a more hawkish tone

The Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday is the key event to watch this week, according to analysts, who are cautious that the market might be expecting an unrealistically dovish tone from the central bank's Chair Jerome Powell.

"In the last couple days ” the hawkish Pence speech and the weaker U.S. data ” markets are getting more convinced that Powell will strike a dovish tone at the next meeting," said McKay. "But, this might be a little premature. We are skeptical that Powell is going to signal more cuts after a cut this week. The Fed is likely to put rate cuts on pause for at least near-term to assess the impact of the potential three cuts they do this year."

Lack of dovishness from Powell could weigh on gold this week as markets are disappointed, McKay added.

Also, the Fed's rate cut has largely been priced in by the gold market, which means any hawkish hints could push gold lower, Baruch pointed out.

"What matters is the narrative they speak of and how they plan on moving forward. So it's not so much the cut but future cuts. Will they be as dovish as the markets are anticipating?" he Baruch. "Also, don™t underestimate Brexit and the U.S.-China talks."

At the time of writing, the markets were estimating a 93.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Data to watch this week

Some key macro releases this week include Friday's U.S. employment report, which is estimated to show that an additional 90,000 jobs have been created in October.

Another important dataset will be the preliminary Q3 GDP figure on Wednesday, which is projected to come in at 1.7%.

Other items to keep a close eye on are CB consumer confidence report and U.S. pending home sales on Tuesday, as well as, personal spending on Thursday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Gold settles with a gain for the session and shorter week

Gold futures climbed on Thursday, also posting a gain for the holiday-shortened week, as concerns over the increase in COVID-19 cases in part of the world provided safe-haven support for the metal. Some of that support lacked in the U.S., where data showed better-than-expected jobs growth in June. "The employment numbers are spectacular but an 11% unemployment rate is still elevated," said Jeff Wright, executive vice president of GoldMining Inc. "COVID cases are back on rise and numerous...

Oil futures end higher, with U.S. prices at their highest since March

Oil futures settled higher on Thursday, buoyed by a hefty decline in last week's U.S. crude supplies and better-than-expected domestic jobs growth in June. August West Texas Intermediate oil rose 83 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $40.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest finish for a front-month contract since March 6, according to FactSet data. There will be no regular trading for Nymex oil futures Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Prices were up...

Gold Heads for Weekly Gain Amid Virus Woes, Jobs Data

Gold headed for a fourth weekly gain as concerns over the resurgence of coronavirus cases countered better-than-expected monthly U.S. jobs data. Texas ordered residents to wear masks, reversing course as it reported its second-most daily infections of the outbreak, while Florida™s largest county, Miami-Dade, will impose a curfew. The novel coronavirus is showing some signs of mutating in a way that may make it easier for the pathogen to spread, according to Anthony...

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Economic Optimism Outweighing Virus

Oil slipped Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain as aggressive supply cuts and better-than-expected U.S. economic data overshadowed a surge in coronavirus cases in the world™s largest economy. Futures in New York fell toward $40 a barrel in Asian trading, but are still up almost 5% for the week. Crude rose along with broader markets on Thursday as data showed a rebound in the U.S. jobs market accelerated in June. That came after American crude stockpiles fell by the most...

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Market Awaits Labor-Market Update

Gold futures inched higher Thursday ahead of employment data in the U.S. that could influence trading in the precious commodity, a day after hope for a vaccine and a rally in stocks eroded appetite for the haven metal. Economists polled by MarketWatch estimate that 3.7 million jobs were created in June, with some estimates ranging as high as 8 million. Meanwhile, a weekly report on individuals seeking unemployment insurance weekly is estimated to show that 1.4 million people sought such...

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