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Strong U.S. Jobs Data Supports Dollar as Market Looks to U.S.-China Trade Deal

The dollar held firm on Monday after data showed surprise strength in the U.S. jobs market, but the currency was restrained from moving higher by worries about an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. The dollar index stood almost flat at 97.704 in early Asian trade on Monday, after rising 0.3% on Friday. The euro traded at $1.10575 , after hitting a one-week low of $1.10395 on Friday. The dollar changed hands at 108.57 yen . It had lifted to 108.92 yen on the U.S. jobs data before losing...

Tokyo: Stocks Open Higher With Eyes on Key Global Events

Tokyo stocks opened higher on Monday extending rallies on Wall Street after strong jobs data, as investors closely watched key events this week including central bank meetings and the UK elections. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.34 per cent or 79.11 points to 23,433.51 in early trade, while the broader Topix index was up 0.36 per cent or 6.11 points at 1,719.47. Source : AFP

Oil Drops From 12-Week High as Demand Woes Overshadow Output Cut

Oil retreated from a 12-week high as optimism spurred by Saudi Arabia's surprise output cut was overshadowed by demand concerns. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery fell 28 cents, or 0.5%, to $58.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:47 a.m. in Singapore. The contract closed at $59.20 on Friday, the highest since Sept. 17. It climbed 7.3% last week, the most since mid-June. Brent for February settlement dropped 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.16 a barrel on the...

Hong Kong: Stocks Edged Up at Monday's Open

Hong Kong stocks edged up at the start of business on Monday following a blockbuster US jobs report and on lingering hopes for the China-US trade talks. The Hang Seng index added 0.06 per cent, or 15.60 points, to 26,513.97. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index added 0.08 per cent, or 2.45 points, to 2,914.46 and the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, rose 0.23 per cent, or 3.83 points, to 1,644.16. Source : AFP

Gold Holds Drop as Equities Rally on Solid U.S. Jobs

Gold held a decline after a better-than-expected U.S. payrolls report on Friday led to a surge in equities, damping demand for haven assets. Job gains roared back in November and wages topped estimates, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to hold interest rates steady after three straight cuts. Payrolls jumped 266,000 last month, the most since January, according to a government report that topped all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. In focus this week are the Fed™s and...

Gold prices to return to $1,500 levels soon - analysts
Monday, 14 October 2019 11:29 WIB | GOLD CORNER |

Even though gold was getting beaten up last Friday, analysts were still optimistic that the precious metal was going to return to its key $1,500 level soon.

Gold fell more than 1% on Friday (10/11/19) with December Comex gold futures last trading near two-week lows at $1,487.70 an ounce.

Upbeat risk appetite was driving the equity markets higher and pressuring gold lower as investors awaited the announcement of a possible partial trade deal between the U.S. and China.

One of the biggest market movers on Friday was the optimism portrayed by U.S. President Trump ahead of his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday afternoon.

Trump tweeted: œGood things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days. I will be meeting with the Vice Premier today. All would like to see something significant happen!

Despite a major selloff in gold, analysts remain confident that gold will rise back up to its key $1,500 level and possibly test the $1,525 resistance.

"Gold will probably return to a better position this week after the Friday 'get me out for the weekend' crowd finishes the stops loss and margin selling ¦ Gold will eventually return to the over $1,500 area in the next few weeks," RBC Wealth Management managing director George Gero told Kitco News on Friday.

Technicals will also help gold this week, said Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

"Bargain hunters will step in to buy the dip in prices. Charts are still overall bullish and there are still geopolitical matters that could quickly move to the front burner of the marketplace and support safe-haven gold and silver," Wyckoff explained.

If gold makes it above $1,525 an ounce, investors would want to be long gold, RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible said.

"Say the trade deal falls apart, geopolitical tensions increase, economic data weaken, gold futures will be right back up there. And if it gets over $1,525, you'd want to be long because we™ll be targeting that $1,565 again."

Geopolitical risks are not going away

Brexit developments also brought some major optimism back into the marketplace on news that Britain and the EU are scheduled to hold œintense" talks on the Brexit deal.

European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay described earlier talks as "constructive," giving markets hope as the U.K.'s departure date nears.

Yet, aside from some good Brexit news, there is still an array of unresolved geopolitical issues weighing on the market.

"Anywhere investors look there is a new worry, whether it is Iran, Middle East, Turkey, economics, global slowdown and some of that is anti-inflationary," Gero said. "Investors should see if good Brexit news continues, and look for currency manipulation language in U.S.-China trade talks, agricultural purchases, and Chinese reaction to tariff talks."

Any new geopolitical flare-up could boost gold up very quickly, Wyckoff pointed out.

"There are still too many geopolitical events that could dampen trader enthusiasm. Slowing world economic growth, U.S.-Iran, U.S.-North Korea, U.S.-China tensions, Brexit," he said.

Friday afternoon (10/11), markets were already busy digesting the news that 3,000 personnel are either being deployed or their missions are being extended in the Middle East "to assure and enhance the defence of Saudi Arabia," according to the Pentagon.

There was also news that Turkey intensified strikes on Kurdish militia in northeast Syria as the UN stated that around 100,000 people have left their homes in the face of the Turkish military incursion.

"The humanitarian impact is already being felt. An estimated 100,000 people have already left their homes," the UN said in a statement.

Federal Reserve sounding more hawkish

Markets are pricing in a lesser chance of a rate cut in October, with the latest estimates from the CME FedWatch Tool projecting a 67% chance of a cut versus the 87% chance just a couple of days ago.

The latest hawkish speaker was the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan, who said that it was important to keep an œopen mind on whether more easing is needed.

"It is my intention to take some time to carefully monitor economic developments ¦ I intend to avoid being rigid or predetermined from here, and plan to remain highly vigilant and keep an open mind as to whether further action on the federal funds rate is appropriate, Kaplan said last Thursday.

Kaplan's statement has led to some readjustment of rate cut expectations, said Melek.

"We had Kaplan yesterday tell the market that there is no great impetus to do a lot on the monetary front to stimulate the economy. He negated the whole idea that inflation was below expectations," Melek pointed out.

Fed could delay easing and that is a negative for gold, added Gero. œSome Fed speakers, like Kaplan, have been more hawkish than usual. I™m presuming that the Fed has access to more numbers than they publish," he said.

Data to watch

This week's biggest data release will be the U.S. retail sales on Wednesday, which are estimated to come in at 0.3% in September. The U.S. Beige book is also scheduled for publication on Wednesday.

"Retail sales are a key measure of optimism. Any weakness there should help gold, said Melek.

Other key data sets to watch include NY Empire State manufacturing index out on Tuesday and Thursday's slate of numbers such as U.S. housing data, industrial production, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

"Empire manufacturing ” that's October data, very important. We are going to see if the weakness continues to translate into the latter part of the year," Melek added.

Source: Kitco News

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POPULAR NEWS
Strong U.S. Jobs Data Supports Dollar as Market Looks to U.S.-China Trade Deal

The dollar held firm on Monday after data showed surprise strength in the U.S. jobs market, but the currency was restrained from moving higher by worries about an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. The dollar index stood almost flat at 97.704 in early Asian trade on Monday, after rising 0.3% on Friday. The euro traded at $1.10575 , after hitting a one-week low of $1.10395 on Friday. The dollar changed hands at 108.57 yen . It had lifted to 108.92 yen on the U.S. jobs data before losing...

Tokyo: Stocks Open Higher With Eyes on Key Global Events

Tokyo stocks opened higher on Monday extending rallies on Wall Street after strong jobs data, as investors closely watched key events this week including central bank meetings and the UK elections. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.34 per cent or 79.11 points to 23,433.51 in early trade, while the broader Topix index was up 0.36 per cent or 6.11 points at 1,719.47. Source : AFP

Oil Drops From 12-Week High as Demand Woes Overshadow Output Cut

Oil retreated from a 12-week high as optimism spurred by Saudi Arabia's surprise output cut was overshadowed by demand concerns. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery fell 28 cents, or 0.5%, to $58.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:47 a.m. in Singapore. The contract closed at $59.20 on Friday, the highest since Sept. 17. It climbed 7.3% last week, the most since mid-June. Brent for February settlement dropped 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.16 a barrel on the...

Hong Kong: Stocks Edged Up at Monday's Open

Hong Kong stocks edged up at the start of business on Monday following a blockbuster US jobs report and on lingering hopes for the China-US trade talks. The Hang Seng index added 0.06 per cent, or 15.60 points, to 26,513.97. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index added 0.08 per cent, or 2.45 points, to 2,914.46 and the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, rose 0.23 per cent, or 3.83 points, to 1,644.16. Source : AFP

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Gold held a decline after a better-than-expected U.S. payrolls report on Friday led to a surge in equities, damping demand for haven assets. Job gains roared back in November and wages topped estimates, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to hold interest rates steady after three straight cuts. Payrolls jumped 266,000 last month, the most since January, according to a government report that topped all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. In focus this week are the Fed™s and...

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