DJIA
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
FTSE
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
NDXI
Last loading.. Chg. loading..
POPULAR NEWS
Dollar holds near 2-1/2-month yen high on U.S.-China partial deal, pound stands tall

The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress towards a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union. On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen, its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal. In early Asian trade on...

Asia shares cheered by Sino-.U.S. trade progress

Asian share markets pushed higher on Monday as signs of progress in the Sino-U.S. trade standoff whetted risk appetites, while pressuring safe-haven bonds and the yen. Liquidity was lacking, however, with Japan off and a partial market holiday in the United States for Columbus Day. MSCI™s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.5%. Australia's main index gained 0.9% and South Korea .KS11 firmed 1.3%. While Tokyo was on holiday, Nikkei futures were...

Gold slips as renewed trade optimism lifts risk appetite

Gold prices eased on Monday, extending falls into a third session, as news that the United States and China had made progress in their recent high-level trade talks lifted risk appetite. Spot gold dropped by 0.3% to $1,485.56 per ounce, as of 00:36 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,489.90. Spot gold prices fell more than 1% in intraday trade on Friday on news that the United States and China were likely to reach a partial agreement on trade. U.S. President Donald Trump on...

Hong Kong stocks open higher on partial trade deal

Hong Kong stocks rallied out of the blocks Monday after China and the United States reached a mini trade deal that raised hopes the two sides were on the path to resolving their long-running stand-off. The Hang Seng Index jumped 0.81 percent, or 214.36 points, to 26,522.80. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.68 percent, or 20.30 points, to 2,993.96, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, added 0.85 percent, or 13.91 points, to...

Gold Edge Higher on Trade Optimism; Palladium at Record

Gold holds below its 50-day moving average after dropping last week on U.S.-China trade optimism. Palladium hit a fresh record. Spot gold +0.1% at $1,490.20/oz after losing 1% last week. Palladium gained as much as 0.5% to $1,707.84/oz, new all-time high. Silver gained 0.2%, while platinum was down 0.4%. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.1%. Spot gold edged higher in London on Monday as traders digested weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data. The EU™s warning that...

Home

Gold to keep bullish trend this week: ECB, U.S. data in focus
Monday, 9 September 2019 11:35 WIB | GOLD CORNER |

After a very volatile session, gold is closing with a second straight week of losses last Friday while analysts remain bullish but slightly more cautious for this week.

Seeing gold hit new fresh six-year highs, then drop more than $50 on a weekly basis has been unnerving for traders. Yet, analysts are saying that both upside and downside potential is capped for gold until the next big market mover.

Weaker-than-expected employment numbers out of the U.S. have helped gold recover some of the losses from earlier last week, but the move was temporary. U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 130,000 versus the expected 160,000; the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.

"Gold should see some upside after the report. But, not a huge amount," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News on Friday. "Employment showed a little bit of weakness, but nothing the Fed is likely going to worry about."

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added to gold™s volatility on Friday as his comments from Zurich, Switzerland talked down gold prices during the afternoon.

If gold ends the week in the green, the positive momentum could carry into next week, said RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible last Friday.

Powell highlighted significant risks, such as slowing global growth, uncertainty around trade policy, and persistently low inflation. At the same time, he said that recession is not expected in the U.S. He reiterated his call that "the most likely ase for the U.S. is continued moderate growth."

"I'm optimistic on gold next week ... lightly bullish. If we end today in the green, it will be a good sign that yesterday was an anomaly and we should snap back. The $1,560-65 high is definitely a pretty solid resistance point. I'll be light on positioning in the gold market until it breaks through there," Streible pointed out.

 

Fed watching CPI, retail data, and the ECB

The focus this week will be on the U.S. data and its impact on the Federal Reserve decision, which is just under two weeks away.

The next Federal Reserve rate announcement is scheduled for Sept. 18 with the majority of the U.S. data so far not giving the Fed a reason to worry too much, Melek noted.

"The implication here is that the Fed is going to be in no hurry to add more accommodation than it has already been talking about. But, at the same time, it probably isn't going to tighten either," he said.

The retail sales report is the most critical data set to keep an eye on Friday, with markets expecting the August figure to come in at 0.2%, according to Melek. "We've been hanging our hat on the retail numbers, saying U.S. economy might be slowing," he said.

The CPI number will also be important this Thursday, especially the core figure, which the markets are projecting to be at 2.3% on an annual basis in August. "Any negative data now, should help gold out," Melek stated.

After all the new data are digested, the Fed might still end up disappointing the markets on Sept. 18, warned Capital Economics markets economist Simona Gambarini.

"We expect the Fed to ease monetary policy. But, because of what's already been priced into the markets, which is at least four 25-basis-point cuts in the Fed target rate, we think that expectations have gone a bit too far," Gambarini explained.

Currently, the markets are pricing in a 93.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September and a 6.5% chance of no cut at all, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Another critical event this week will be the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday with markets expecting a rate cut along with some new stimulus package.

"The ECB will be talking about potential recession and taking steps. If yields in Europe drop here that also applied downward pressure on the U.S," Melek pointed out.

Streible highlighted gold in euro terms as the thing to watch this week. "At the last meeting, they indicated that they were getting ready to release 'bazooka' of stimulus, which could continue to put pressure on the euro currency. Gold in euro terms might be really what we need to watch," he said.

Gambarini, on the other hand, said that the ECB might not be as aggressive as markets are anticipating. "We do have a rate cut in September priced in and we do have the ECB restarting QE later this year. But, the market is currently forecasting QE and pricing in more rate cuts. That is the reason why we are not more positive on gold prices," she said.

 

Technical levels to watch

Gold bulls are still very much in control of the gold market, said Kitco's senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

"A three-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at $1,600.00 ¦ First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,528.50 and then at 1,535.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,510.70 and then at $1,500.00," Wyckoff wrote last Friday.

Melek is looking at $1,480 an ounce on the downside and $1,557 an ounce on the upside.

Streible pointed towards the 20-day moving average as a very good gage when it comes to identifying support levels in gold. "The 20-day moving average is currently critical support at $1,529.30," he said.

Long-term outlook

Taking a slightly longer-term outlook, Capital Economics is projecting for gold to end the year around the $1,500 levels as two forces balance each other out. On the one hand, risk aversion is expected to continue to support gold. But, bond yields are projected to recover, which will put pressure on gold.

"We expect risk aversion for the rest of the year, which should support demand for gold. In particular, we expect stock markets in the U.S. and the rest of the world to sell-off by the end of the year. On the other hand, because bond yields have already fallen so much, we expect them to head higher for the rest of the year, which should put downward pressure on gold," Gambarini told Kitco News on Friday. "On balance, we think that the gold price will stay at current levels for the rest of the year.'

Source: Kitco News

RELATED NEWS
Gold prices to return to $1,500 levels soon - analysts...
Monday, 14 October 2019 11:29 WIB

Even though gold was getting beaten up last Friday, analysts were still optimistic that the precious metal was going to return to its key $1,500 level soon. Gold fell more than 1% on Friday (10/11/19...

Don't go quietly into that good night: Wall Street, Main Street bullish on gold prices...
Monday, 7 October 2019 13:14 WIB

Gold bulls are keeping the drive alive as both Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors remain firmly bullish on the yellow metal as the price has managed to regain the $1,500 level heading into...

Wall Street neutral on gold price, Main Street optimism hits 3-month low...
Monday, 30 September 2019 15:22 WIB

The sidelines in the gold market are getting a little crowded with Wall Street analysts projecting range-bound trading despite rising volatility in the near-term. Meanwhile, Main Street investors rem...

Bearish Cracks Appearing In Bullish Gold Market...
Monday, 19 August 2019 15:16 WIB

After three-straight weeks of gains, cracks are starting to appear in gold's bullish veneer, particularly among Wall Street analysts, according to the latest results of the Kitco News Weekly Gold Surv...

Wall Street, Main Street Sill Bullish On Gold, But Caution Creeping Higher...
Monday, 12 August 2019 12:41 WIB

The market remains emphatically bullish on gold. But, looking past the headlines, the yellow metal is beginning to look overbought, according to some analysts. The gold market is on track to see its ...

POPULAR NEWS
Dollar holds near 2-1/2-month yen high on U.S.-China partial deal, pound stands tall

The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress towards a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union. On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen, its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal. In early Asian trade on...

Asia shares cheered by Sino-.U.S. trade progress

Asian share markets pushed higher on Monday as signs of progress in the Sino-U.S. trade standoff whetted risk appetites, while pressuring safe-haven bonds and the yen. Liquidity was lacking, however, with Japan off and a partial market holiday in the United States for Columbus Day. MSCI™s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.5%. Australia's main index gained 0.9% and South Korea .KS11 firmed 1.3%. While Tokyo was on holiday, Nikkei futures were...

Gold slips as renewed trade optimism lifts risk appetite

Gold prices eased on Monday, extending falls into a third session, as news that the United States and China had made progress in their recent high-level trade talks lifted risk appetite. Spot gold dropped by 0.3% to $1,485.56 per ounce, as of 00:36 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,489.90. Spot gold prices fell more than 1% in intraday trade on Friday on news that the United States and China were likely to reach a partial agreement on trade. U.S. President Donald Trump on...

Hong Kong stocks open higher on partial trade deal

Hong Kong stocks rallied out of the blocks Monday after China and the United States reached a mini trade deal that raised hopes the two sides were on the path to resolving their long-running stand-off. The Hang Seng Index jumped 0.81 percent, or 214.36 points, to 26,522.80. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.68 percent, or 20.30 points, to 2,993.96, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, added 0.85 percent, or 13.91 points, to...

Gold Edge Higher on Trade Optimism; Palladium at Record

Gold holds below its 50-day moving average after dropping last week on U.S.-China trade optimism. Palladium hit a fresh record. Spot gold +0.1% at $1,490.20/oz after losing 1% last week. Palladium gained as much as 0.5% to $1,707.84/oz, new all-time high. Silver gained 0.2%, while platinum was down 0.4%. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.1%. Spot gold edged higher in London on Monday as traders digested weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data. The EU™s warning that...

DISCLAIMER

Seluruh materi atau konten yang tersaji di dalam website ini hanya bersifat informatif saja, dan tidak dimaksudkan sebagai pegangan serta keputusan dalam investasi atau jenis transaksi lainnya. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala akibat yang timbul dari penyajian konten tersebut. Semua pihak yang mengunjungi website ini harus membaca Terms of Service (Syarat dan Ketentuan Layanan) terlebih dahulu dan dihimbau untuk melakukan analisis secara independen serta memperoleh saran dari para ahli dibidangnya.