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Gold futures finish lower for a second straight session

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Gold prices to return to $1,500 levels soon - analysts
Monday, 14 October 2019 11:29 WIB | GOLD CORNER |

Even though gold was getting beaten up last Friday, analysts were still optimistic that the precious metal was going to return to its key $1,500 level soon.

Gold fell more than 1% on Friday (10/11/19) with December Comex gold futures last trading near two-week lows at $1,487.70 an ounce.

Upbeat risk appetite was driving the equity markets higher and pressuring gold lower as investors awaited the announcement of a possible partial trade deal between the U.S. and China.

One of the biggest market movers on Friday was the optimism portrayed by U.S. President Trump ahead of his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday afternoon.

Trump tweeted: œGood things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days. I will be meeting with the Vice Premier today. All would like to see something significant happen!

Despite a major selloff in gold, analysts remain confident that gold will rise back up to its key $1,500 level and possibly test the $1,525 resistance.

"Gold will probably return to a better position this week after the Friday 'get me out for the weekend' crowd finishes the stops loss and margin selling ¦ Gold will eventually return to the over $1,500 area in the next few weeks," RBC Wealth Management managing director George Gero told Kitco News on Friday.

Technicals will also help gold this week, said Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

"Bargain hunters will step in to buy the dip in prices. Charts are still overall bullish and there are still geopolitical matters that could quickly move to the front burner of the marketplace and support safe-haven gold and silver," Wyckoff explained.

If gold makes it above $1,525 an ounce, investors would want to be long gold, RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible said.

"Say the trade deal falls apart, geopolitical tensions increase, economic data weaken, gold futures will be right back up there. And if it gets over $1,525, you'd want to be long because we™ll be targeting that $1,565 again."

Geopolitical risks are not going away

Brexit developments also brought some major optimism back into the marketplace on news that Britain and the EU are scheduled to hold œintense" talks on the Brexit deal.

European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay described earlier talks as "constructive," giving markets hope as the U.K.'s departure date nears.

Yet, aside from some good Brexit news, there is still an array of unresolved geopolitical issues weighing on the market.

"Anywhere investors look there is a new worry, whether it is Iran, Middle East, Turkey, economics, global slowdown and some of that is anti-inflationary," Gero said. "Investors should see if good Brexit news continues, and look for currency manipulation language in U.S.-China trade talks, agricultural purchases, and Chinese reaction to tariff talks."

Any new geopolitical flare-up could boost gold up very quickly, Wyckoff pointed out.

"There are still too many geopolitical events that could dampen trader enthusiasm. Slowing world economic growth, U.S.-Iran, U.S.-North Korea, U.S.-China tensions, Brexit," he said.

Friday afternoon (10/11), markets were already busy digesting the news that 3,000 personnel are either being deployed or their missions are being extended in the Middle East "to assure and enhance the defence of Saudi Arabia," according to the Pentagon.

There was also news that Turkey intensified strikes on Kurdish militia in northeast Syria as the UN stated that around 100,000 people have left their homes in the face of the Turkish military incursion.

"The humanitarian impact is already being felt. An estimated 100,000 people have already left their homes," the UN said in a statement.

Federal Reserve sounding more hawkish

Markets are pricing in a lesser chance of a rate cut in October, with the latest estimates from the CME FedWatch Tool projecting a 67% chance of a cut versus the 87% chance just a couple of days ago.

The latest hawkish speaker was the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan, who said that it was important to keep an œopen mind on whether more easing is needed.

"It is my intention to take some time to carefully monitor economic developments ¦ I intend to avoid being rigid or predetermined from here, and plan to remain highly vigilant and keep an open mind as to whether further action on the federal funds rate is appropriate, Kaplan said last Thursday.

Kaplan's statement has led to some readjustment of rate cut expectations, said Melek.

"We had Kaplan yesterday tell the market that there is no great impetus to do a lot on the monetary front to stimulate the economy. He negated the whole idea that inflation was below expectations," Melek pointed out.

Fed could delay easing and that is a negative for gold, added Gero. œSome Fed speakers, like Kaplan, have been more hawkish than usual. I™m presuming that the Fed has access to more numbers than they publish," he said.

Data to watch

This week's biggest data release will be the U.S. retail sales on Wednesday, which are estimated to come in at 0.3% in September. The U.S. Beige book is also scheduled for publication on Wednesday.

"Retail sales are a key measure of optimism. Any weakness there should help gold, said Melek.

Other key data sets to watch include NY Empire State manufacturing index out on Tuesday and Thursday's slate of numbers such as U.S. housing data, industrial production, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

"Empire manufacturing ” that's October data, very important. We are going to see if the weakness continues to translate into the latter part of the year," Melek added.

Source: Kitco News

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Gold futures finish lower for a second straight session

Gold futures fell on Wednesday for a second straight session, pressured on the heels of some strength in the U.S. dollar, even as concerns over the economic hit from COVID-19 remain. "It would appear that gold needs a clear sign of a pandemic and clear signs of severe global slowing to ignite a return of aggressive investment buying," said analysts at Zaner Metals, in a daily note. "The trade could be fearful about the potential for a sustained setback in Chinese physical gold...

Gold futures give up earlier gains to log a third straight session decline

Gold futures gave up earlier gains on Thursday to finish lower for a third straight session. "Gold prices are always sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, but it's rarely been more strongly correlated against bond yields than it is right now," said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. "So while the plunge in the stock market should keep driving gold higher, any pullback in these surging bond prices is also going to hit gold short-term," he said. Bond prices move in the...

Gold Climbs as Trump Comments Fail to Ease Virus Fears

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Gold Gains on Virus Spread, Rate Cut Hopes

Gold prices rose on Thursday as the rapid spread of coronavirus outside China fueled demand for safe-haven assets and bolstered bets for interest rate cuts by major central banks, while palladium scaled an all-time high on supply deficit worries. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,648.63 per ounce. Prices jumped more than 1% in intraday trade on Wednesday before closing 0.3% higher. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% at $1,650.50. Governments ramped up measures on Thursday to battle the coronavirus as...

Oil futures settle at lowest in over a year

Oil futures declined on Wednesday, with the U.S crude benchmark settling at its lowest in more than a year as global energy demand worries fed by the spread of COVID-19 pulled prices down for a fourth consecutive session. April West Texas Intermediate oil fell $1.17, or 2.3%, to settle at $48.73 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest front-month contract finish since January 2019, according to FactSet data. Source : MarketWatch

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